Talkin' 'bout my generation: Environmental variability and cohort effects
Talkin' 'bout my generation: Environmental variability and cohort effects
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DOI：
10.1086/381056
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发表时间：
2003-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Koesters, N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beckerman, AP;Benton, TG;Koesters, N
在多变的环境中，过去的环境条件可能会影响现在的人口表现。当这些延迟的生活史效应在群体中的个体群体之间同步时，就会发生群体效应。在这里，我们展示了在整个生命周期中密度依赖的人口特征的可塑性如何导致队列效应，并且这些效应可能会产生大量的人口动态后果。我们的实验表明，密度和食物条件的发展早期可以影响随后的少年生活史特征。我们还表明，在发展的早期条件可以与成熟的条件，以塑造未来的成年表现。事实上，成熟时的食物供应和密度等条件，就像发育早期的条件一样，可以在成熟阶段产生群组效应。基于这些数据，并在当前的理论上产生的历史环境的可塑性的影响，我们作出预测的后果，这种变化对密度依赖的人口统计学和螨种群动态。我们使用一个随机队列效应模型来产生一系列的人口动态。根据理论，我们发现预测的密度依赖强度的变化和相关的变化，人口动态和人口变异。
In variable environments, it is probable that environmental conditions in the past can influence demographic performance now. Cohort effects occur when these delayed life-history effects are synchronized among groups of individuals in a population. Here we show how plasticity in density-dependent demographic traits throughout the life cycle can lead to cohort effects and that there can be substantial population dynamic consequences of these effects. We show experimentally that density and food conditions early in development can influence subsequent juvenile life-history traits. We also show that conditions early in development can interact with conditions at maturity to shape future adult performance. In fact, conditions such as food availability and density at maturity, like conditions early in development, can generate cohort effects in mature stages. Based on these data, and on current theory about the effects of plasticity generated by historical environments, we make predictions about the consequences of such changes on density-dependent demography and on mite population dynamics. We use a stochastic cohort effects model to generate a range of population dynamics. In accordance with the theory, we find the predicted changes in the strength of density dependence and associated changes in population dynamics and population variability.