Ring current simulations of the 90 intense storms during solar cycle 23
Ring current simulations of the 90 intense storms during solar cycle 23
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2008ja013466
复制
发表时间：
2008-03
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Liemohn;M. Jazowski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Liemohn;M. Jazowski
[1]第23太阳活动周（1996-2005）的所有强磁暴（最小Dst值<−100 nT）都是使用热电子和离子漂移积分器（HEIDI）模型模拟的。这些模拟是使用Kp驱动的屏蔽Volland-Stern电场、静态偶极磁场和来自洛斯阿拉莫斯地球同步卫星上的仪器的夜侧等离子体数据进行的。在90个事件中，79个事件具有可接受的等离子体边界条件覆盖范围（主相位数据间隙为4小时或更短），并被纳入分析中。根据太阳风驱动因素对风暴进行了分类，并对平均值和相关性进行了检查。结果发现，对于这种模型配置，HEIDI模型能够最好地再现鞘驱动事件的Dst时间序列，其平均最小Dst* 来自等于或低于观察到的最小Dst* 值的模拟。CIR驱动的事件是最不可重复的风暴类别，模拟的最小Dst* 值通常只有观测到的最小值的一半到三分之二。一般而言，观察到的Dst* 最小值与建模的最小值之间存在强相关性，观察到的最小Dst* 与建模与观察到的Dst* 比值之间基本上不存在相关性。这意味着最终风暴的大小并不能很好地指示这个版本的HEIDI是否能够准确地再现它;相反，Kp驱动的HEIDI模拟在预测风暴强度方面始终处于较低水平，除了鞘驱动的事件。
[1] All of the intense magnetic storms (minimum Dst value of <−100 nT) from solar cycle 23 (1996–2005) were simulated using the hot electron and ion drift integrator (HEIDI) model. The simulations were run using a Kp-driven shielded Volland-Stern electric field, static dipole magnetic field, and nightside plasma data from instruments on the Los Alamos geosynchronous satellites. Of the 90 events, 79 had acceptable plasma boundary condition coverage (with main phase data gaps of 4 h or less) and are included in the analysis. Storms were classified according to their solar wind driver, and means and correlations were examined. It is found that for this model configuration, the HEIDI model was able to best reproduce the Dst time series for sheath-driven events with an average minimum Dst* from the simulations at or below the observed minimum Dst* value. CIR-driven events were the least reproducible class of storms, with simulated minimum Dst* values typically only half to two thirds of the observed minimum value. In general, there was a strong correlation between the observed and modeled minimums of Dst* and essentially no correlation between the observed minimum Dst* and the modeled-to-observed Dst* ratio. This implies that the size of the eventual storm is not a good indicator of whether this version of HEIDI will be able to accurately reproduce it; rather, a Kp-driven HEIDI simulation is consistently on the low side of predicting storm intensity, except for sheath-driven events.