The Tropical Pacific ENSO–Mean State Relationship in Climate Models over the Last Millennium
The Tropical Pacific ENSO–Mean State Relationship in Climate Models over the Last Millennium
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0673.1
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发表时间：
2020-09
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
D. A. Wyman;J. L. Conroy;C. Karamperidou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. A. Wyman;J. L. Conroy;C. Karamperidou
ENSO和热带太平洋纬向平均海表温度梯度（dSST）是全球气候的重要驱动力，并在十年到百年的时间尺度上变化。然而，dSST和ENSO之间的关系不能用短的仪器记录来评估，并且在代理数据中是不确定的，假设在过去总体强dSST的情况下发生较强和较弱的ENSO间隔。在这里，我们评估的ENSO dSST的关系，在过去的一千年中使用的大气环流模式（GCMs）参与第三阶段的古气候模拟相互比较项目。上个千年的GCM模拟显示ENSO-dSST关系的强度和方向的多样性。然而，最好地模拟现代热带太平洋气候的模式往往具有更负的ENSO-dSST相关性。因此，上个千年的热带太平洋气候模拟支持在热带太平洋dSST减少的十年至百年期间ENSO增强的可能性。然而，在所有模式模拟中，ENSO-dSST的交替方向关系表明，这种关系并不是恒定的，可能是由多种机制控制的。
ENSO and the mean zonal sea surface temperature gradient (dSST) of the tropical Pacific are important drivers of global climate and vary on decadal to centennial time scales. However, the relationship between dSST and ENSO cannot be assessed with the short instrumental record, and is uncertain in proxy data, with intervals of both stronger and weaker ENSO postulated to occur with overall strong dSST in the past. Here we assess the ENSO–dSST relationship during the last millennium using general circulation models (GCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. Last millennium GCM simulations show diversity in the strength and direction of the ENSO–dSST relationship. Yet, the models that best simulate modern tropical Pacific climate frequently have a more negative ENSO–dSST correlation. Thus, last millennium tropical Pacific climate simulations support the likelihood of enhanced ENSO during decadal to centennial periods of reduced tropical Pacific dSST. However, the alternating directional ENSO–dSST relationship in all model simulations suggests that this relationship is not constant through time and is likely controlled by multiple mechanisms.