Voting by Mail and Turnout in Oregon: Revisiting Southwell and Burchett
Voting by Mail and Turnout in Oregon: Revisiting Southwell and Burchett
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DOI：
10.1177/1532673x12457809
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Miller, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gronke, Paul;Miller, Peter
在关于邮寄投票率影响的最广泛引用的结果中，索斯韦尔和伯切特报告说，俄勒冈州的投票率提高了10个百分点。我们试图复制这一发现，并将分析扩展到其他年份，以测试最初报告的效果是否是由于1995年和1996年的前三次邮寄选举的新奇。我们无法通过复制或延长时间序列以包括2010年选举数据来复制先前的调查结果。当我们的分析包括1960年至2010年的所有选举时，我们发现了新奇效应的证据，并且只有在特别选举中，邮寄投票对投票率的影响是一致的。
In the most widely cited result on the turnout effects of voting by mail, Southwell and Burchett report that Oregon's system increased turnout by 10 percentage points. We attempt to replicate this finding and extend the analysis to additional years to test whether the originally reported effect is due to the novelty of the first three voting by mail elections in 1995 and 1996. We are unable to reproduce earlier findings, either via replication or extending the time series to include 2010 electoral data. We find evidence for a novelty effect when all elections between 1960 and 2010 are included in our analysis, and a consistent impact of voting by mail on turnout only in special elections.