The Effect of Traffic Complexity on the Development of Near Misses on the North Sea
The Effect of Traffic Complexity on the Development of Near Misses on the North Sea
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DOI：
10.1109/tsmc.2015.2503605
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发表时间：
2017-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. V. Westrenen;J. Ellerbroek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. V. Westrenen;J. Ellerbroek
由于运输需求的变化、船舶的大型化以及海洋空间的新用途（如风车公园），船舶交通正在发生变化。这可能会对海上风险产生影响。本文利用自动识别系统提供的船舶状态信息--报文，对北海的交通状况进行了分析。从船舶状态信息中选择冲突情况，即，船舶需要机动以避免碰撞的情况。此外，计算了近距离碰撞的情况。人们发现，复杂的冲突导致更多的未遂事件。调查还发现，未遂事件并非均匀分布在整个海域，而是集中在若干特定地点。这些发现对于船舶航线结构的设计以及研究解决复杂冲突局势的方法可能很重要。
Vessel traffic is changing due to changing transport demands, larger ships, and new use of sea space, such as windmill parks. This may have an effect on the risks at sea. This paper uses ship state information provided by automatic identification system-messages to analyze the traffic on the North Sea. From the ship-state information conflict situations are selected, i.e., situations where the ships need to maneuver to avoid collision. In addition, situations of near-miss collisions are calculated. It was found that complex conflicts lead to more near misses. It was also found that near misses are not spread evenly over the sea but are concentrated in a number of specific locations. These findings may be important for the design of route structures for ships, as well as for investigations into methods to resolve complex conflict situations.