Probability Transformations In The Study Of Behavior Toward Risk
Probability Transformations In The Study Of Behavior Toward Risk
复制标题
风险行为研究中的概率变换
作者：
William S. Neilson
概率转换函数被引入到风险行为模型中，以允许它们适应对预期效用假设的违反。本文考察了概率转换函数的形状，它被解释为乐观或悲观，以及当使用概率转换时，结果的排序如何变得重要。它还探讨了两个行为的影响：不太可能的，极端的结果，以及确定性周围的intertia的权重。最后讨论了概率分布变换的合理性。
Probability transformation functions were introduced into modelsof behavior toward risk to allow them to accommodate violations of the expected utility hypothesis.This paper examines the shape of the probability transformation function, its interpretation asoptimism or pessimism, and how the ranking of outcomes becomes important when probability transformationsare used. It also explores two behavioral implications: the overweighting of unlikely, extremeoutcomes, and intertia around certainty. Finally, the rationality of transforming the probabilitydistribution is discussed.