Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident: Comparison with external exposures
Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident: Comparison with external exposures
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切尔诺贝利事故后白俄罗斯的甲状腺癌风险：与外部暴露的比较
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
E. P. Demidchik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter Jacob;Y. Kenigsberg;G. Goulko;E. Buglova;F. Gering;A. Golovneva;J. Kruk;E. P. Demidchik
在1990-1993年期间，由于切尔诺贝利事故，白俄罗斯儿童甲状腺癌发病率急剧上升，特别是在1971年1月1日至1986年5月31日的出生队列中。 随后，即在1994-1996年期间，这一增长速度减缓。对各自的数据进行了分析，并将其与关于在儿童时期曾受高剂量率外部辐射照射的一组人的甲状腺癌发病率随时间变化的分析结果进行了比较。关于接触后5-10年期间，发现后一（外部）接触组每单位甲状腺剂量的超额绝对癌症风险超过白俄罗斯组两倍。然而，这种差异在统计学上并不显著。发现儿童期外部暴露后5-50年期间，每单位甲状腺剂量的年龄校正平均超额绝对风险为每104人-年·戈伊8例女性和14例男性病例，这是汇总队列中未校正风险的约2.5倍，如罗恩等人1995年报告的那样。对切尔诺贝利事故造成的未来甲状腺癌病例过多的评估是根据外部照射后甲状腺癌风险的时间依赖性进行的。在白俄罗斯，从停止现有观察数据（1997年1月1日）起至切尔诺贝利事故后50年期间，出生队列中甲状腺癌发病率估计约为15，000例，不确定范围为5，000 - 45，000例。根据我们的计算，这些病例中有80%超过了加强甲状腺监测的基线风险。
Abstract Within the time period 1990–1993, childhood thyroid cancer incidence due to the Chernobyl accident increased dramatically in Belarus, especially with regard to the birth cohort January 1, 1971, to May 31, 1986. This rise subsequently slowed down, i.e. during the period 1994–1996. The respective data were analysed and compared with the results of an analysis on the time dependence of thyroid cancer incidence in a pooled cohort of persons who had been exposed during childhood to external radiation with high dose rates. Concerning the period of 5–10 years following exposure, the excess absolute cancer risk per unit thyroid dose in the latter (external) exposure group was found to exceed the one in the Belarus group by a factor of two. This difference, however, is not statistically significant. The age-adjusted average excess absolute risk per unit thyroid dose for the period of 5–50 years following external childhood exposure was found to be 8 female and 14 male cases per 104 person-year · Gy, which is a factor about 2.5 times higher than for the non-adjusted risk in the pooled cohort, as reported by Ron et al. in 1995. Assessments of future excess thyroid cancer cases due to the Chernobyl accident were done on the basis of the time dependence of thyroid cancer risk following external exposure. The thyroid cancer incidence among the birth cohort considered in Belarus and for a period starting from the cessation of the available observation data (1 January 1997) and extending to 50 years after the Chernobyl accident has been estimated to be about 15,000 cases, with an uncertainty range of 5000–45,000 cases. According to our calculations, 80% of these cases exceed the baseline risk under enhanced thyroid surveillance.
有关辐射诱发甲状腺癌的问题和流行病学证据。
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Shore,RE
通讯作者：
Shore,RE
辐射诱发的甲状腺癌和甲状腺结节的剂量-反应关系：辐射对甲状腺长期影响的证据。
DOI：
10.1210/jcem.77.2.8345040
发表时间：
1993
期刊：
The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism
影响因子：
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作者：
Schneider,AB;Ron,E;Lubin,J;Stovall,M;Gierlowski,TC
通讯作者：
Gierlowski,TC