The Role of Subway Travel in an Influenza Epidemic: A New York City Simulation
The Role of Subway Travel in an Influenza Epidemic: A New York City Simulation
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DOI：
10.1007/s11524-011-9603-4
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Wagener, Diane K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooley, Philip;Brown, Shawn;Wagener, Diane K.
在大都市地区使用公共交通的人们之间的相互作用可能有助于流感流行的传播。基于代理的模型计算机模拟纽约市的（纽约市）的五个行政区的开发，将地铁乘客到一个易感-暴露-暴露-患病模型框架。该模型总共包含7，847，465个虚拟人。每个人都居住在纽约市的五个行政区之一，并有一套社会人口特征和日常行为，包括年龄，性别，就业状况，收入，职业和家庭位置和成员。该模型模拟了地铁乘客与他们的工作场所，学校，家庭和社群活动的相互作用。它是使用1957-1958年流感大流行和纽约市旅行调查的历史数据进行校准的。这些调查是必要的，以便将地铁乘客纳入模型。模型结果估计，如果纽约市发生具有1957-1958年大流行特征的流感，4%的传播将发生在地铁上。这表明，针对地铁乘客的干预措施在遏制疫情方面相对无效。一些假设的例子证明了这一特点。这些信息可能对公共卫生官员规划流行病应对措施很有用。
The interactions of people using public transportation in large metropolitan areas may help spread an influenza epidemic. An agent-based model computer simulation of New York City's (NYC's) five boroughs was developed that incorporated subway ridership into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered disease model framework. The model contains a total of 7,847,465 virtual people. Each person resides in one of the five boroughs of NYC and has a set of socio-demographic characteristics and daily behaviors that include age, sex, employment status, income, occupation, and household location and membership. The model simulates the interactions of subway riders with their workplaces, schools, households, and community activities. It was calibrated using historical data from the 1957-1958 influenza pandemics and from NYC travel surveys. The surveys were necessary to enable inclusion of subway riders into the model. The model results estimate that if influenza did occur in NYC with the characteristics of the 1957-1958 pandemic, 4% of transmissions would occur on the subway. This suggests that interventions targeted at subway riders would be relatively ineffective in containing the epidemic. A number of hypothetical examples demonstrate this feature. This information could prove useful to public health officials planning responses to epidemics.