Knowing what you'll do: effects of analyzing reasons on self-prediction.
Knowing what you'll do: effects of analyzing reasons on self-prediction.
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知道你会做什么：分析原因对自我预测的影响。
DOI：
10.1037//0022-3514.68.1.21
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发表时间：
1995
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
LaFleur,SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wilson,TD;LaFleur,SJ
分析一个人愿意或不愿意以某种方式行动的原因被预测会增加这种行为的感知可能性，并降低自我预测的准确性。在三项研究中，大学生预测他们对熟人的行为是友好的还是不友好的。那些被要求分析他们愿意或不愿意执行行为的原因的人，与不分析的对照组相比，更有可能说他们会执行行为，表现出确认偏差；做出不那么准确的预测，因为分析原因改变了他们的预测，但没有改变他们的实际行为；以及更自信，因为分析原因降低了准确性，但不是信心。当人们最初对目标人的喜好与他们预测的行为的价值不同时，这些影响都会特别明显。
Analyzing the reasons why one would or would not act in a certain way was predicted to increase the perceived likelihood of the behavior and to lower the accuracy of the self-predictions. In 3 studies, college students predicted whether they would act in friendly or unfriendly ways toward an acquaintance. Those asked to analyze reasons why they would or would not perform the behaviors, as compared with no-analyze controls, were more likely to say they would perform the behaviors, showing a confirmation bias; made less accurate predictions, because analyzing reasons changed their predictions but not their actual behavior; and were more overconfident, because analyzing reasons lowered accuracy but not confidence. Each of these effects was especially pronounced when people's initial liking for the target person was different from the valence of the behavior they were predicting.(PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)