The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves
The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.073
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发表时间：
2012-02
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Kristofer Jakobsson;R. Bentley;Bengt Söderbergh;K. Aleklett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kristofer Jakobsson;R. Bentley;Bengt Söderbergh;K. Aleklett
在“关心”和“不关心”的分析师之间，就未来石油的供应和可负担性展开了激烈的辩论。我们批判性地研究了两个相互关联且看似合理的论点，以获得一个无关紧要的观点：(1)剩余储量越来越多；(2)产油量大，平均生产成本相对较低。这些说法在理论和经验上都没有说服力。石油供应是关于流量而不是库存，平均成本与价格和产量的决定无关。随后，我们在自然科学和经济学的微观基础上实施了一个自下而上的区域石油生产模型。石油生产商在油藏动态、技术能力和经济环境的约束下优化净现值。针对不同的油藏驱动和经济情景，得出了最优的生产剖面。然后将场模型与从对数正态场大小-频率分布中随机抽样的发现模型相结合。生成区域发现和生产场景。我们的方法并不依赖于Hubbert曲线等自上而下模型的简单假设，而是得出了同样的定性结果，即当大部分可采资源仍在地下时，产量达到峰值。
There is a lively debate between ‘concerned’ and ‘unconcerned’ analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil. We critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible arguments for an unconcerned view: (1) there is a growing amount of remaining reserves; (2) there is a large amount of oil with a relatively low average production cost. These statements are unconvincing on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Oil availability is about flows rather than stocks, and average cost is not relevant in the determination of price and output. We subsequently implement a bottom-up model of regional oil production with micro-foundations in both natural science and economics. An oil producer optimizes net present value under the constraints of reservoir dynamics, technological capacity and economic circumstances. Optimal production profiles for different reservoir drives and economic scenarios are derived. The field model is then combined with a discovery model of random sampling from a lognormal field size-frequency distribution. Regional discovery and production scenarios are generated. Our approach does not rely on the simple assumptions of top-down models such as the Hubbert curve – however it leads to the same qualitative result that production peaks when a substantial fraction of the recoverable resource remains in-ground.