Energy and Climate Change: A Climate Prediction Market
Energy and Climate Change: A Climate Prediction Market
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能源与气候变化：气候预测市场
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Gilligan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Vandenbergh;Kaitlin Toner;J. Gilligan
许多能源政策都是由对气候变化的担忧推动的。关于碳排放重要性的观点影响到从发电和输电的监管到是否需要激励措施来开发和推广新兴技术等议题的辩论。政府为资助和传播气候科学所做的努力是非凡的，但最近的民意调查显示，大约一半的美国人不确定或不相信人为气候变化正在发生。在一些人群中，即使气候科学变得更加确定，对气候变化的信念也在下降。大部分怀疑发生在支持自由市场的个人中，而这种怀疑是由政府和政府资助的气候科学家没有解释与气候共识不一致的信息的论点所推动的。本文探讨了一种私人治理对策：建立一个预测市场，以评估和交流气候科学的影响。市场不仅允许买卖商品，还提供有关未来事件可能性的信息。研究表明，市场往往能够解释传统智慧之外的信息。此外，可能怀疑气候科学的个人可能会发现市场是可靠的信息来源。气候市场可以采取沿着于爱荷华州总统预测市场的学术倡议形式，也可以作为一个更传统的期权市场运作。交易可能发生在对全球气候变化至关重要的预测类型上，例如2020年或2100年的全球平均温度或海平面，预测的当前市场价值表明结果的可能性。市场将受到操纵的关注，但其他预测市场的经验表明，气候预测市场有潜力提供准确，可信和广泛传播的气候科学状况信号。
Much of energy policy is driven by concerns about climate change. Views about the importance of carbon emissions affect debates on topics ranging from the regulation of electricity generation and transmission to the need for incentives to develop and promote emerging technologies. Government efforts to fund and communicate climate science have been extraordinary, but recent polling suggests that roughly half of the American population is unsure or does not believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring. Among some populations belief in climate change is declining even as the climate science becomes more certain. Much of the doubt occurs among individuals who support free markets, and the doubt is fueled by the argument that governments and government-funded climate scientists are not accounting for information that is inconsistent with the climate consensus. This Article explores a private governance response: the creation of a prediction market to assess and communicate the implications of climate science. Markets not only allow the buying and selling of goods, they provide information about the likelihood of future events. Research suggests that markets are often able to account for information that is outside of the conventional wisdom. In addition, individuals who are likely to doubt climate science may find markets to be credible sources of information. A climate market could take the form of an academic initiative along the lines of the Iowa presidential prediction market or could operate as a more traditional options market. Trading could occur over the types of predictions that matter for global climate change, such as the global average temperature or sea level in 2020 or 2100, with the current market value of the prediction signaling the likelihood of the outcome. The market will be subject to manipulation concerns, but experience with other prediction markets suggests that a climate prediction market has the potential to provide an accurate, credible and widely-disseminated signal about the status of the climate science.