Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil
Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abh1558
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发表时间：
2021-05-21
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Singer, Burton H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Castro, Marcia C.;Kim, Sun;Singer, Burton H.
巴西受到COVID-19的严重打击，病例和死亡病例在空间上迅速蔓延。我们使用报告病例和死亡的每日数据来了解，测量和比较城市之间传播的时空模式。COVID-19向内陆地区移动的聚集性、轨迹、速度和强度指标，以及政策措施指标表明，尽管没有单一的叙述可以解释传播的多样性，但在地方严重不平等的背景下，实施迅速、协调和公平的应对措施的总体失败助长了疾病的传播。这造成了不平等的高感染率和死亡率负担。由于目前病例和死亡人数激增，以及几种令人关切的变种正在流行，如果不能减缓传播，可能会进一步加重负担。
Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We used daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensity of the movement of COVID-19 to interior areas, combined with indices of policy measures, show that although no single narrative explains the diversity in the spread, an overall failure of implementing prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of stark local inequalities fueled disease spread. This resulted in high and unequal infection and mortality burdens. With a current surge in cases and deaths and several variants of concern in circulation, failure to mitigate the spread could further aggravate the burden.