Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average
Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average
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间歇性需求预测：无偏平均值的估计
DOI：
10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602031
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
F. Johnston
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
EA Shale;J. Boylan;F. Johnston
许多存货商持有的大多数商品都呈现出间歇性的需求。准确预测这些项目的发行率是很重要的，已经开发了几种方法，但所有这些方法都或多或少地产生有偏差的预测。本文推导了有序到达服从泊松过程时的期望偏差，并给出了实际应用中的修正因子。一些其他的到达过程的扩展被简要地考虑。
The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered.