Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan
Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2017-209266
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Yokoya, Susumu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morisaki, Naho;Urayama, Kevin Yuji;Yokoya, Susumu
研究背景日本是世界上预期寿命最长的国家，在过去的世纪里，日本的成人身高也有了惊人的增长，但自20世纪70年代以来，日本的低出生体重（LBW）出生率却急剧增加了一倍（1969-2014年），以及1969 - 1996年出生的3145521名成年人的平均身高趋势，包括在日本国家，次国家或社区人群中进行的79项调查。结果LBW率呈现U形模式，显示1978-1979年之前（5.5%）下降，之后上升。相反，在同一时期出生的人的平均成年身高达到峰值（男性，171.5厘米;女性，158.5厘米），随后在接下来的20年中下降。低出生体重率与成人身高呈强负相关（男性，r=-0.98;女性，r=-0.88）。一个基于出生和经济特征的预测模型估计，全国成年人的平均身高将继续下降，至170.0cm（95% CI 169.6 - 170.3）男性和157.9 cm（95%CI 157.5 - 158.3）。结论日本1980年以后出生的成年人身高开始下降，这一趋势可能归因于出生体重不足的婴儿随着时间的推移而增加。考虑到已知的成人身高较短与不良健康结局之间的相关性，预计日本低出生体重儿出生增加的长期后果会导致成人健康水平下降。
Background Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s.Methods We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan.Results LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014.Conclusions Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated.