Dynamics of a declining amphibian metapopulation: Survival, dispersal and the impact of climate
Dynamics of a declining amphibian metapopulation: Survival, dispersal and the impact of climate
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2009.11.017
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
McCrea, Rachel S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Griffiths, Richard A.;Sewell, David;McCrea, Rachel S.
气候可以以复杂的方式与人口动态相互作用。在这项研究中，我们描述了气候因素如何通过与生存、招募和分散的相互作用影响12年来两栖动物亚种群的动态。大冠蝾螈的年存活率低与暖冬和强降水有关，在区域层面上影响了大冠蝾螈的种群分布。因此，不同年份的存活率不同，但不同亚群之间没有差异。尽管存在这种区域效应，但四个亚种群的动态在很大程度上是不同步的。4个亚种群中有3个在大多数年份遭受繁殖失败，并且对大种群的招募依赖于一个来源。因此，种群动态的不同步可能是由招募和幼崽分散的变化造成的。在12年的时间里，至少有一个亚种群灭绝了。这些趋势与该系统的模拟相一致，该系统预测，如果成年存活率低于30%，并且幼崽存活率较低，两个亚种群的灭绝风险为50%。因此，只有在相对较高的成虫存活率补偿的情况下，间歇性的补充才可能导致种群持续存在。暖冬可能因此降低两栖动物种群的生存能力。面对气候变化，可能需要在局部范围内采取保护行动，以弥补成虫存活率的下降。这将需要包括加强招聘、连接和分散的管理。2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Climate can interact with population dynamics in complex ways. In this study we describe how climatic factors influenced the dynamics of an amphibian metapopulation over 12 years through interactions with survival, recruitment and dispersal. Low annual survival of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) was related to mild winters and heavy rainfall, which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Consequently, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Despite this regional effect, the four subpopulations were largely asynchronous in their dynamics. Three out of the four subpopulations suffered reproductive failure in most years, and recruitment to the metapopulation relied on one source. Variation in recruitment and juvenile dispersal was therefore probably driving asynchrony in population dynamics. At least one subpopulation went extinct over the 12 year period. These trends are consistent with simulations of the system, which predicted that two subpopulations had an extinction risk of >50% if adult survival fell below 30% in combination with low juvenile survival. Intermittent recruitment may therefore only result in population persistence if compensated for by relatively high adult survival. Mild winters may consequently reduce the viability of amphibian metapopulations. In the face of climate change, conservation actions may be needed at the local scale to compensate for reduced adult survival. These would need to include management to enhance recruitment, connectivity and dispersal. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.