Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan
Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan
复制标题
量化新产品的优势：小型货车的案例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Amil Petrin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Amil Petrin
本文提出了一种技术，当一个人被限制在市场层面的数据时，可以获得更精确的需求和供应曲线估计。这项技术允许人们使用与消费者人口统计数据和他们购买的产品特征相关的信息来扩大市场份额数据。这些额外的信息与消费者层面的数据起着相同的作用，允许估计的替代模式和(因此)福利直接反映人口驱动的对观察到的特征品味的差异。我将这项技术应用于汽车市场，评估引入小型货车的经济影响。我认为，与使用微观数据的模型相比，没有微观数据估计的模型产生的福利数字要大得多，这主要是因为微观数据似乎使模型摆脱了对特殊的Logit“品味”错误的严重依赖。我通过衡量先发优势和利润蚕食的程度来完成福利图景，这两种情况最初都是创新者的，后来是模仿者的。我的研究结果支持了这样一个故事，即消费者生活水平的大幅提高源于竞争，因为企业通过寻找新商品来蚕食彼此的利润，这些新商品给了他们一些暂时的市场力量。
This paper proposes a technique for obtaining more precise estimates of demand and supply curves when one is constrained to market‐level data. The technique allows one to augment market share data with information relating consumer demographics to the characteristics of the products they purchase. This extra information plays the same role as consumer‐level data, allowing estimated substitution patterns and (thus) welfare to directly reflect demographic‐driven differences in tastes for observed characteristics. I apply the technique to the automobile market, estimating the economic effects of the introduction of the minivan. I show that models estimated without micro data yield much larger welfare numbers than the model using them, primarily because the micro data appear to free the model from a heavy dependence on the idiosyncratic logit “taste” error. I complete the welfare picture by measuring the extent of first‐mover advantage and profit cannibalization both initially by the innovator and later by the imitators. My results support a story in which large improvements in consumers’ standard of living arise from competition as firms cannibalize each other’s profits by seeking new goods that give them some temporary market power.