Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh.
Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2020.106155
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
J. Kuylenstierna;C. Heaps;T. Ahmed;H. Vallack;W. K. Hicks;M. Ashmore;Christopher S. Malley;Guozhong Wang;Binfan Jiang;S. Anenberg;F. Lacey;D. Shindell;Utpal Bhattacharjee;D. Henze
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文献类型：
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作者：
J. Kuylenstierna;C. Heaps;T. Ahmed;H. Vallack;W. K. Hicks;M. Ashmore;Christopher S. Malley;Guozhong Wang;Binfan Jiang;S. Anenberg;F. Lacey;D. Shindell;Utpal Bhattacharjee;D. Henze
低收入和中等收入国家承受着与空气污染相关的最大健康负担，并且特别容易受到气候变化的影响。由于温室气体和空气污染物排放源的重叠，以及污染物的一个子集，即短寿命气候污染物（SLCP），直接促成了这两种影响，因此已经确定了同时改善空气质量和减缓气候变化的大量机会。然而，低收入和中等收入国家的规划人员往往缺乏实用工具，无法量化不同政策和措施对空气污染和气候变化的影响。本文介绍了一个在低排放分析平台-综合效益计算器（LEAP-IBC）工具中实施的建模框架，以制定改善空气质量、人类健康和减缓气候变化的综合战略。该框架估计了历史年份的温室气体、SLCP和空气污染物的排放量，以及对基线和减缓情景的未来预测。然后，这些排放量被用于量化i）目标国家的人口加权年平均环境PM2.5浓度，ii）生活在使用不同燃料/技术烹饪的家庭中的不同人口群体的家庭PM2.5暴露，iii）所有排放的辐射强迫。健康影响（过早死亡）归因于环境和家庭PM2.5暴露和全球平均温度变化的变化，然后估计。该框架在孟加拉国得到应用，以评估实施孟加拉国国家自主贡献和国家行动计划减少SLCP的空气质量和气候变化惠益。结果表明，孟加拉国国家数据中心为减少温室气体而采取的措施也对空气质量和人类健康产生了巨大的好处。与基线情景相比，全面实施孟加拉国的NDC和国家SLCP计划将在2030年分别减少二氧化碳，甲烷，黑碳和初级PM2.5排放量的25%，34%，46%和45%。这些减排措施可以在2030年将孟加拉国人口加权的环境PM2.5浓度降低18%，并在2030年分别避免约12，000和100，000人因环境和家庭PM2.5暴露而过早死亡。随着各国同时计划实现《巴黎协定》中的气候目标、改善空气质量以减少健康影响并实现可持续发展目标，LEAP-IBC工具提供了一个实用框架，规划者可以通过该框架制定综合战略，实现多种空气质量和气候效益。
Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform – Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM2.5concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM2.5exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM2.5exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh’s NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh’s NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM2.5emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. These emission reductions could reduce population-weighted ambient PM2.5concentrations in Bangladesh by 18% in 2030, and avoid approximately 12,000 and 100,000 premature deaths attributable to ambient and household PM2.5exposures, respectively, in 2030. As countries are simultaneously planning to achieve the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, improve air quality to reduce health impacts and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the LEAP-IBC tool provides a practical framework by which planners can develop integrated strategies, achieving multiple air quality and climate benefits.