Coronavirus pandemic: A predictive analysis of the peak outbreak epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil
Coronavirus pandemic: A predictive analysis of the peak outbreak epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Ghanbari, Behzad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Djilali, Salih;Ghanbari, Behzad
在这项研究中，我们有兴趣预测冠状病毒在南非，土耳其和巴西的流行高峰爆发。到目前为止，还没有已知的安全治疗方法，因此个体的免疫系统在从这种传染病中恢复方面起着至关重要的作用。一般而言，老年人可能因COVID-19而死亡率最高。众所周知，这种免疫系统会受到个体年龄的影响，因此考虑使用年龄结构化SEIR系统来模拟冠状病毒传播是明智的。对于COVID-19疫情，处于潜伏期的个体有能力感染易感个体。在建立可靠的预测数学模型时，考虑了上述几点。研究模型使我们能够预测COID-19在南非，土耳其和巴西的传播。考虑了这些国家的流行高峰爆发，并通过一些数值模拟来估计感染结束的时间。此外，还调查了隔离感染者对COVID-19疾病传播的影响。(C)2020爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
In this research, we are interested in predicting the epidemic peak outbreak of the Coronavirus in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. Until now, there is no known safe treatment, hence the immunity system of the individual has a crucial role in recovering from this contagious disease. In general, the aged individuals probably have the highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19. It is well known that this immunity system can be affected by the age of the individual, so it is wise to consider an age-structured SEIR system to model Coronavirus transmission. For the COVID-19 epidemic, the individuals in the incubation stage are capable of infecting the susceptible individuals. All the mentioned points are regarded in building the responsible predictive mathematical model. The investigated model allows us to predict the spread of COID-19 in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. The epidemic peak outbreak in these countries is considered, and the estimated time of the end of infection is regarded by the help of some numerical simulations. Further, the influence of the isolation of the infected persons on the spread of COVID-19 disease is investigated. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.