A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections
A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1122-3
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发表时间：
2014-04
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
M. Petr;L. Boerboom;A. Veen;D. Ray
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Petr;L. Boerboom;A. Veen;D. Ray
通过英国气候预测2009年首次获得了可能的气候数据，从而可以量化树木生长变化的风险。我们评估了干旱风险的空间和时间使用干旱概率计算的天气发电机数据和树种脆弱性，使用生态网站分类模型在英国。我们评估了干旱对三种主要树种（云杉、樟子松和栎）潜在产量的影响，这些树种覆盖了低地和高地约59%（400，700公顷）的国家管理森林。我们发现，干旱的影响主要是在减少树木生长在未来80年内使用B1，A1 B和A1 FI IPCC的排放情景时，但空间上不同。我们发现，从基线气候（1961-1990年）到21世纪80年代，潜在林分产量最大减少94%，但最大增加56%。此外，与基线气候相比，由于干旱，21世纪80年代所有三个物种的国家管理森林的潜在产量估计将减少42%，低地减少32%。我们的研究结果表明，潜在的树木生长和森林生产的国家管理的森林在英国可能会减少，并指出在哪里和何时需要适应措施。此外，本文证明了概率气候预测的重要经济和环境部门的价值。
Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of change in tree growth can be quantified. We assessed the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities calculated from the weather generator data and tree species vulnerabilities using Ecological Site Classification model across Britain. We evaluated the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis,Pinus sylvestris, andQuercus robur), which cover around 59 % (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across the lowlands and uplands. We show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using B1, A1B, and A1FI IPCC emissions scenarios, but varied spatially. We found a maximum reduction of 94 % but also a maximum increase of 56 % in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961–1990). Furthermore, potential production over the state-managed forests for all three species in the 2080s is estimated to decrease due to drought by 42 % in the lowlands and by 32 % in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the state-managed forests in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.