The variance of sea surface temperature and projected changes with global warming
The variance of sea surface temperature and projected changes with global warming
复制标题
海面温度的变化和全球变暖的预测变化
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-006-0117-9
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
G. Boer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Yu;G. Boer
基于表面能量收支，海温变化与三个因子的乘积有关：表面辐射和湍流能量通量和海洋热输运的方差总和，取决于它们之间协方差的效率因子，以及通过其滞后自相关关系涉及表面温度持续性的传递因子。根据NCEP/NCAR再分析的结果和CCCma耦合气候模式的模拟，对当前气候条件下的这些量进行了分析。气候变化的潜在变化是基于两个准平衡的气候变化积分来考虑的，其中强迫已稳定在IS92a强迫情景的2050年和2100年的值。在模拟和再分析的大气中，导致海表温度变化的表面能通量是相似的，但模拟的温度变化取决于上层海洋模式层的厚度。海温随全球变暖的变化表现为热带中东部太平洋和北热带外太平洋减少，而亚热带太平洋和北大西洋中纬度均增加。海温方差的变化不仅与地表能通量/输运方差的变化有关，还与地表能通量/输运协方差的变化以及温度自相关结构的变化有关。
Based on the surface energy budget, the sea surface temperature (SST) variance is related to the product of three factors: the sum of the variances of surface radiative and turbulent energy fluxes and of ocean heat transport, an efficiency factor depending on the covariances among them, and a transfer factor involving the persistence of surface temperature via its lagged autocorrelation. These quantities are analyzed for current climate conditions based on results from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and a simulation with the CCCma coupled climate model. Potential changes with climate change are considered based on two quasi-equilibrium climate change integrations for which the forcing has been stabilized at years 2050 and 2100 values of the IS92a forcing scenario. The surface energy fluxes, which contribute to the variance of SST, are similar in the modelled and reanalyzed atmosphere but modelled temperature variance is conditioned on the thickness of the upper ocean model layer. Changes of SST variance with global warming show broad scale patterns with decreases in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and the northern extra-tropical Pacific, and increases in both the sub-tropical Pacific and mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic. The changes in SST variance are not associated only with changes in the variances of surface energy fluxes/transports but also with changes in the covariances among them and by changes in the temperature autocorrelation structure.