The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5
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发表时间：
2024-03
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Weiming Ma;Hailong Wang;Gang Chen;L. Leung;Jian Lu;P. J. Rasch;Qiang Fu;B. Kravitz;Yufei Zou;J. Cassano;W. Maslowski
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作者：
Weiming Ma;Hailong Wang;Gang Chen;L. Leung;Jian Lu;P. J. Rasch;Qiang Fu;B. Kravitz;Yufei Zou;J. Cassano;W. Maslowski
大气河流（ARs），温暖和潮湿空气的入侵，可以有效地驱动北极地区的极端天气，并引发对海冰和气候的后续影响。是什么控制了观察到的数十年北极AR趋势仍不清楚。在这里，使用多个观测源和模型实验，我们发现，与气候模拟中的一致正趋势相反，在1981-2021年，与太平洋地区相比，大西洋地区观测到的北极AR频率增加了两倍。这种差异可以通过观测到的年代际太平洋涛动（IPO）的正-负相移和大西洋年代际涛动（AMO）的负-正相移来调和，这分别增加和减少了大西洋和太平洋部门的北极AR。消除IPO和AMO的影响可以将近期北极AR趋势的预测不确定性降低约24%，这对于限制北极变暖的预测和无冰北极的时间非常重要。
Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.