Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control
Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01759.x
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Clarke, Lauren D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holford, Theodore R.;Clarke, Lauren D.
1964年《卫生局局长报告》的发表，收集了吸烟对公众健康造成危害的证据，包括肺癌死亡率，并为引入控制计划提供了动力。这篇文章的目的是开发估计其影响的基本吸烟暴露输入参数相关的介绍报告。用于产生香烟暴露的基本输入是男性和女性的开始和停止率，以及每天吸烟数量的分布。这些基本数量是为三种情景提出的：美国的实际烟草控制;没有烟草控制，假设1955年之前的经验继续下去;以及完全烟草控制，在报告发表后停止所有吸烟。这些结果是使用国家健康访谈调查的数据得出的，它们为癌症干预和监测建模网络开发的每个肺癌模型所使用的吸烟历史生成器提供了基本输入参数。
Publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964 marshaled evidence of the harm to public health caused by cigarette smoking, including lung cancer mortality, and provided an impetus for introducing control programs. The purpose of this article is to develop estimates of their effect on basic smoking exposure input parameters related to introduction of the report. Fundamental inputs used to generate exposure to cigarettes are initiation and cessation rates for men and women, as well as the distribution of the number of cigarettes smoked per day. These fundamental quantities are presented for three scenarios: actual tobacco control in the United States; no tobacco control in which the experience before 1955 was assumed to continue; and complete tobacco control in which all smoking ceased following publication of the report. These results were derived using data from National Health Interview Surveys, and they provide basic input parameters for the Smoking History Generator used by each of the lung cancer models developed by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network.