Multistate Model for Travel Time Reliability
Multistate Model for Travel Time Reliability
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DOI：
10.3141/2188-06
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发表时间：
2010-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
F. Guo;Hesham A Rakha;Sangjun Park
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Guo;Hesham A Rakha;Sangjun Park
旅行时不可靠性是交通运输系统的一个重要特征。适当的旅行时间可靠性建模和报告对个人旅行者和管理机构都至关重要。提出了一种新的多状态旅行时间建模和报告模型。该模型从两个方面对走时建模进行了改进。首先，与单模模型相比，多态模型提供了更好的模型拟合。其次，更重要的是，所提出的模型提供了旅行时间分布和潜在旅行时间状态之间的联系。这种连接允许对每个旅行时间状态的概率以及与每个状态相关的不确定性进行定量评估，例如，在一天中的给定时间遇到拥堵的概率以及如果经历拥堵的预期旅行时间。通过仿真研究验证了该模型的性能。该模型应用于德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥的现场数据。研究了模型参数随时间的变化规律。仿真研究和现场数据分析证实了多状态模型优于单模走时可靠性模型，且易于解释。
Travel time unreliability is an important characterization of transportation systems. The appropriate modeling and reporting of travel time reliability is crucial for individual travelers as well as management agencies. A novel multistate model is proposed for travel time modeling and reporting. The model advances travel time modeling in two aspects. First, the multistate model provides much improved model fitting as compared with single-mode models. Second and more important, the proposed model provides a connection between travel time distributions and the underlying travel time state. This connection allows for the quantitative evaluation of the probability of each travel time state as well as the uncertainty associated with each state, for example, the probability of encountering congestion at a given time of day and the expected travel time if congestion is experienced. A simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the performance of the model. The proposed model was applied to field data collected at San Antonio, Texas. The variation of the model parameters as a function of time of day was also investigated. The simulation study and field data analysis confirmed the superiority of the multistate model over the state-of-practice single-mode travel time reliability models and for ease of interpretation.