Integrating the effects of flood experience on risk perception with responses to changing climate risk
Integrating the effects of flood experience on risk perception with responses to changing climate risk
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-014-1288-z
复制
发表时间：
2014-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Becker, Julia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lawrence, Judy;Quade, Dorothee;Becker, Julia
随着气候变化，洪水管理决策者面临重大挑战。对受洪灾影响的人的看法对成功实施适应对策至关重要；风险看法受信息传播方式的影响，进而影响对洪水风险管理人员作出反应的期望。在新西兰赫特河谷，通过家庭调查、研讨会和对当地政府从业人员的采访，研究了洪水经历、风险认知和个别家庭应对措施之间的联系。测试了两个命题：(1)洪水经历可以影响人们对洪水风险的认知；(2)洪水经历可以刺激在气候风险可能发生变化的地方采取更多的减少风险和适应行动。对洪水管理责任的看法也进行了调查。研究发现，以前的洪灾经验有助于提高对风险的认识，提高家庭的防备能力，更愿意进行家庭层面的改革，加强与理事会的沟通，以及更多地倡导空间规划，以补充现有的结构保护。除地方政府外，受洪灾影响的家庭更倾向于中央政府和负有洪灾风险责任的社区。那些缺乏经验的人更有可能恢复到之前良好的经历，因此对洪水后果持乐观态度。这些结果表明，通过参与战略利用不断变化的风险的经验和沟通的积极方面，可能有助于将重点从公民对政府总是会提供保护的期望，转移到公民-地方政府-中央政府就洪水风险的变化特征及其影响进行对话，并建立一个被认为是可取的“分担和承担”的“有风险意识”的社会。
Flood management decision-makers face significant challenges as the climate changes. The perceptions of those affected by floods are critical to the successful implementation of adaptation responses; risk perceptions are affected by how information is communicated and, in turn, perceptions influence expectations on flood risk managers to respond. The links between flood experience, risk perception, and responses by individual households were examined in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand, through a household survey, a workshop and interviews with local government practitioners. Two propositions were tested: (1) that flood experience can influence flood risk perceptions; and (2) that flood experience can stimulate increased risk reduction and adaptation actions where changing climate risk is likely. Perceptions of responsibility for flood management were also examined. The study found that previous flood experience contributes to heightened perception of risk, increased preparedness of households, greater willingness to make household-level changes, greater communication with councils, and more advocacy for spatial planning to complement existing structural protection. Flood-affected households had a stronger preference for central government and communities having flood risk responsibilities, in addition to local government. Those who lacked experience were more likely to be normalised to their prior benign experiences and thus optimistic about flood consequences. These results suggest that harnessing positive aspects of experience and communication of changing risk through engagement strategies could help shift the focus from citizens' expectation that governments will always provide protection, to a citizen-local government-central government dialogue about the changing character of flood risk and its implications, and build a 'risk conscious' society in which 'sharing and bearing' is considered desirable.