Geography, poverty and conflict in Nepal
Geography, poverty and conflict in Nepal
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343310386175
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Iyer, Lakshmi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Do, Quy-Toan;Iyer, Lakshmi
我们对 1996 年至 2006 年期间导致尼泊尔内战蔓延的地理、经济和社会因素进行了实证分析。这种国内分析补充了现有的同一主题的跨国研究。使用详细的数据集来跟踪跨空间和跨时间的内战伤亡情况，记录了几种模式。在较贫困地区和有利于叛乱分子的地理位置（例如山区和森林），与冲突有关的死亡人数明显更高；贫困人口增加 10 个百分点，与冲突相关的死亡人数就会增加 25-27 人。这一结果与跨国研究中记录的结果相似。此外，叛乱分子造成的死亡和国家造成的死亡与贫困和地理的关系相似。此外，较贫穷的地区可能会更早地卷入叛乱，这与招募叛乱分子的较低成本是引发冲突的一个重要因素的理论是一致的。另一方面，地理因素与此类事件的发生并无显着相关性，这表明地理因素仅在冲突开始后才加剧暴力的强度。最后，与一些跨国分析相反，种族和种姓两极分化、土地不平等和政治参与与暴力并没有显着相关。
We conduct an empirical analysis of the geographic, economic, and social factors that contributed to the spread of civil war in Nepal over the period 1996-2006. This within-country analysis complements existing cross-country studies on the same subject. Using a detailed dataset to track civil war casualties across space and over time, several patterns are documented. Conflict-related deaths are significantly higher in poorer districts and in geographical locations that favor insurgents, such as mountains and forests; a 10 percentage point increase in poverty is associated with 25-27 additional conflict-related deaths. This result is similar to that documented in cross-country studies. In addition, the relationship with poverty and geography is similar for deaths caused by the insurgents and deaths caused by the state. Furthermore, poorer districts are likely to be drawn into the insurgency earlier, consistent with the theory that a lower cost of recruiting rebels is an important factor in starting conflict. On the other hand, geographic factors are not significantly associated with such onset, suggesting that they instead contribute to the intensity of violence only after conflict has started. Finally, in contrast to some cross-country analyses, ethnic and caste polarization, land inequality, and political participation are not significantly associated with violence.