Does rising crime lead to increasing distress? Longitudinal analysis of a natural experiment with dynamic objective neighbourhood measures
Does rising crime lead to increasing distress? Longitudinal analysis of a natural experiment with dynamic objective neighbourhood measures
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.05.014
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Jalaludin, Bin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Astell-Burt, Thomas;Feng, Xiaoqi;Jalaludin, Bin
由于依赖于观测数据，识别“邻里效应”以支持我们生活的地方对我们的健康至关重要的广泛信念仍然是一个重大挑战。在这项研究中，我们重新评估当地的犯罪率和心理困扰的问题，通过应用未观察到的（“固定”）的影响模型，参与者的样本谁留在整个研究的同一个街区。基线数据是从2006年至2008年的45岁以上研究中提取的，并作为2009年至2010年社会经济和环境因素研究（SEEF）的一部分进行了随访。Kessler 10分记录了25，545名男性和29，299名女性报告的有效结果。2006年至2010年每千人的年度犯罪率（包括非家庭暴力、恶意破坏、破门而入、偷窃、盗窃和抢劫）与个人数据有关。因此，在这项研究中，参与者接触犯罪的变化是由于当地犯罪率的变化，而不是邻里选择的过程。性别分层未观察到的影响logistic回归调整来源的随时间变化的混杂因素（年龄，收入，就业，夫妇状况和身体功能）表明，增加的风险经历心理困扰一般与邻里犯罪水平的增加。对妇女的影响特别大，特别是恶意损害的增加（比值比（三分位数3 VS三分位数1）2.40，95%置信区间1.88，3.05），这可能表明对当地建筑环境的损害是将邻里犯罪与心理困扰联系起来的重要途径。没有发现统计上的显著关联，增加非家庭暴力，虽然效果是在假设的方向。总之，应用未观察到的影响模型来分析数据，考虑到人们生活的时间动态特征，值得进一步研究。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Identifying 'neighbourhood effects' to support widespread beliefs that where we live matters for our health remains a major challenge due to the reliance upon observational data. In this study we reassess the issue of local crime rates and psychological distress by applying unobserved ('fixed') effects models to a sample of participants who remain in the same neighbourhoods throughout the study. Baseline data was extracted from the 45 and Up Study between 2006 and 2008 and followed up as part of the Social Economic and Environmental Factors (SEEF) Study between 2009 and 2010. Kessler 10 scores were recorded for 25,545 men and 29,299 women reported valid outcomes. Annual crime rates per 1000 (including non-domestic violence, malicious damage, break and enter, and stealing, theft and robbery) from 2006 to 2010 inclusive were linked to the person-level data. Change in exposure to crime among participants in this study, therefore, occurs as a result of a change in the local crime rate, rather than a process of neighbourhood selection. Gender stratified unobserved effects logistic regression adjusting for sources of time-varying confounding (age, income, employment, couple status and physical functioning) indicated that an increase in the risk of experiencing psychological distress was generally associated with an increase in the level of neighbourhood crime. Effect sizes were particularly high for women, especially for an increase in malicious damage (Odds Ratio (Tertile 3 VS Tertile 1) 2.40, 95% Confidence Interval 1.88, 3.05), which may indicate that damage to local built environment is an important pathway linking neighbourhood crime with psychological distress. No statistically significant association was detected for an increase in non-domestic violence, although the effect was in the hypothesised direction. In summary, the application of unobserved effects models to analyse data that takes into account the temporally dynamic characteristics of where people live warrants further investigation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.