Lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis.
Lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis.
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DOI：
10.1002/art.24021
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发表时间：
2008-09-15
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jordan JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Murphy L;Schwartz TA;Helmick CG;Renner JB;Tudor G;Koch G;Dragomir A;Kalsbeek WD;Luta G;Jordan JM
估计症状性膝关节骨关节炎（OA）的终生风险，总体和按性别、种族、教育、膝关节损伤史和体重指数（BMI）分层。在约翰斯顿县骨关节炎项目的3，068名参与者中，通过logistic回归模型和广义估计方程估计了至少1个膝关节的症状性OA的终生风险，该项目是一项对居住在北卡罗来纳州农村的≥45岁的黑人和白色女性和男性进行的纵向研究。分析了基线（1990-1997）和首次随访（1999-2003）时测量的影像学、社会人口统计学和症状性膝关节数据。症状性膝关节OA的终生风险为44.7%（95%置信区间[95% CI] 40.0-49.3%）。有膝关节损伤史的队列成员的终生风险为56.8%（95% CI 48.4-65.2%）。终生风险随着BMI的增加而增加，肥胖者的风险为三分之二。约翰斯顿县近一半的成年人在85岁时会患上有症状的膝关节OA，肥胖者的终身风险最高。约翰斯顿县目前的高风险可能表明美国普通人群存在类似的风险，特别是考虑到膝关节OA、衰老和肥胖的2个主要风险因素增加。这强调了迫切需要更多地使用临床和公共卫生干预措施，特别是那些解决体重减轻和自我管理的干预措施，以减少膝关节OA的影响。
To estimate the lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), overall and stratified by sex, race, education, history of knee injury, and body mass index (BMI). The lifetime risk of symptomatic OA in at least 1 knee was estimated from logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations among 3,068 participants of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a longitudinal study of black and white women and men age ≥45 years living in rural North Carolina. Radiographic, sociodemographic, and symptomatic knee data measured at baseline (1990–1997) and first followup (1999–2003) were analyzed. The lifetime risk of symptomatic knee OA was 44.7% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 40.0–49.3%). Cohort members with history of a knee injury had a lifetime risk of 56.8% (95% CI 48.4–65.2%). Lifetime risk rose with increasing BMI, with a risk of 2 in 3 among those who were obese. Nearly half of the adults in Johnston County will develop symptomatic knee OA by age 85 years, with lifetime risk highest among obese persons. These current high risks in Johnston County may suggest similar risks in the general US population, especially given the increase in 2 major risk factors for knee OA, aging, and obesity. This underscores the immediate need for greater use of clinical and public health interventions, especially those that address weight loss and self-management, to reduce the impact of having knee OA.