Assessing global marine fishery status with a revised dynamic catch-based method and stock-assessment reference points
Assessing global marine fishery status with a revised dynamic catch-based method and stock-assessment reference points
复制标题
使用修订后的动态捕捞方法和种群评估参考点评估全球海洋渔业状况
DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fss105
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
H. Lotze
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Anderson;T. Branch;D. Ricard;H. Lotze
对渔业状况的评估对管理至关重要，但大多数渔业缺乏独立于渔业的丰度估计。已有从渔获量推断渔业状况的方法，但最常用的方法倾向于将渔业分类为过度开发或随着时间的推移而崩溃，并且不考虑仍在发展的渔业。我们引入了一种修正的方法，通过迭代平滑捕捞序列，在捕捞高峰的三年内宣布渔业发展，并将阈值校准为生物参考点来克服这些缺陷。与210种鱼类的种群评估参考点所获得的状况相比，我们的方法提供了比原始方法更现实的评估，但由于渔获量受生物量以外因素的影响，因此不可能是完美的。应用于粮农组织捕鱼量，我们的方法表明，2006年全球32%的渔业处于发展阶段，27%处于充分开发阶段，25%处于过度开发阶段，16%处于崩溃或关闭状态。虽然没有以前的评估那么可怕，但这仍然表明大量过度开发的鱼类。可能是由于1992年以来中位数开采率下降，我们基于捕获量的结果不能反映最近评估种群生物量的稳定。这一前景是否也适用于未评估的种群，只能通过增加或更具代表性的生物量和开采率趋势的收集来揭示。
The assessment of fishery status is essential for management, yet fishery-independent estimates of abundance are lacking for most fisheries. Methods exist to infer fishery status from catches, but the most commonly used method is biased towards classifying fisheries as overexploited or collapsed through time and does not account for still-developing fisheries. We introduce a revised method that overcomes these deficiencies by smoothing catch series iteratively, declaring fisheries developing within three years of peak catch, and calibrating thresholds to biological reference points. Compared with status obtained from stock-assessment reference points for 210 stocks, our approach provides a more realistic assessment than the original method, but cannot be perfect because catches are influenced by factors other than biomass. Applied to FAO catches, our method suggests in 2006 32% of global fisheries were developing, 27% fully exploited, 25% overexploited, and 16% collapsed or closed. Although less dire than previous assessments, this still indicates substantial numbers of overexploited stocks. Probably because median exploitation rate decreased since 1992, our catch-based results do not reflect recent stabilization of assessed-stock biomass. Whether this outlook also applies to unassessed stocks can only be revealed with increased or more representative collection of biomass- and exploitation-rate trends.