Recent cropping frequency, expansion, and abandonment in Mato Grosso, Brazil had selective land characteristics
Recent cropping frequency, expansion, and abandonment in Mato Grosso, Brazil had selective land characteristics
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巴西马托格罗索州近期的种植频率、扩张和废弃具有选择性的土地特征
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Adami
中科院分区：
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作者：
S. Spera;A. Cohn;Leah K. Vanwey;J. Mustard;B. Rudorff;J. Risso;M. Adami
这封信使用卫星遥感研究了2001年至2011年巴西马托格罗索州耕地扩张、耕地废弃和种植频率变化的模式。在此期间，马托格罗索成为全球重要的农业生产中心。2001年，马托格罗索州种植了330万公顷机械化农业，其中50万公顷每个生长季节种植两种经济作物（两季）。到2011年，马托格罗索州有580万公顷的机械化农业，其中290万公顷是复种。我们发现，这些农业变化在土地属性方面具有选择性——农业与非农业、单作与双作、扩张与废弃的土地属性之间存在显著差异（p < 0.001）。与扩张可能性增加相关的许多土地属性（海拔、坡度、最高温度、最低温度、大豆初始运输成本和土壤）与放弃可能性降低相关（p < 0.001）。虽然2001年与农业和复种相似的土地比所有其他土地更有可能被开发为农业，但新农田转移到更热、更干燥、更远离农业基础设施的低洼地区（p < 0.001）。马托格罗索州可用于农业扩张的高质量剩余农业用地稀缺，可能是2006年至2011年农业扩张放缓的原因之一。土地利用政策分析应控制土地稀缺对农业扩张的制约。
This letter uses satellite remote sensing to examine patterns of cropland expansion, cropland abandonment, and changing cropping frequency in Mato Grosso, Brazil from 2001 to 2011. During this period, Mato Grosso emerged as a globally important center of agricultural production. In 2001, 3.3 million hectares of mechanized agriculture were cultivated in Mato Grosso, of which 500 000 hectares had two commercial crops per growing season (double cropping). By 2011, Mato Grosso had 5.8 million hectares of mechanized agriculture, of which 2.9 million hectares were double cropped. We found these agricultural changes to be selective with respect to land attributes—significant differences (p < 0.001) existed between the land attributes of agriculture versus non-agriculture, single cropping versus double cropping, and expansion versus abandonment. Many of the land attributes (elevation, slope, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, initial soy transport costs, and soil) that were associated with an increased likelihood of expansion were associated with a decreased likelihood of abandonment (p < 0.001). While land similar to agriculture and double cropping in 2001 was much more likely to be developed for agriculture than all other land, new cropland shifted to hotter, drier, lower locations that were more isolated from agricultural infrastructure (p < 0.001). The scarcity of high quality remaining agricultural land available for agricultural expansion in Mato Grosso could be contributing to the slowdown in agricultural expansion observed there over 2006 to 2011. Land use policy analyses should control for land scarcity constraints on agricultural expansion.