Reliability analysis of composite channels using first order approximation and Monte Carlo simulations
Reliability analysis of composite channels using first order approximation and Monte Carlo simulations
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DOI：
10.1007/s00477-012-0663-0
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发表时间：
2013-02
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
S. Adarsh;M. J. Reddy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Adarsh;M. J. Reddy
人工明渠作为造价较高的基础设施，其设计应确保可靠性沿着优化工程造价。本文提出了复合渠道的可靠性分析，考虑与各种设计参数，如摩擦系数，纵坡，渠道宽度，边坡，和流深的不确定性。本研究亦考虑流域特性、降雨强度及流域面积之不确定性，以量化径流之不确定性。对于不确定性建模，采用了改进的一次二阶矩方法和蒙特卡罗模拟，发现两种方法的结果显示出良好的一致性。然后，可以用来设计一个组合渠道，以传达设计流量为指定的风险或故障概率的可靠性指标，并与不同的渠道设计参数的敏感性进行了分析。为了验证该方法的有效性，在静态和动态环境下，得到了可变系统载荷情况下的可靠度值和安全系数。敏感性分析表明，水流深度和床宽是影响安全系数和可靠度的最重要的参数。
Artificial open channels being costlier infrastructure, their design should ensure reliability along with optimality in project cost. This paper presents reliability analysis of composite channels, considering uncertainty associated with various design parameters such as friction factors, longitudinal slope, channel width, side slope, and flow depth. This study also considers uncertainties of watershed characteristics, rainfall intensity and drainage area to quantify the uncertainty of runoff. For uncertainty modeling, the advanced first order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation are used and it is found that the results by both approaches show good agreement. Then, a reliability index that can be used to design a composite channel to convey design discharge for a specified risk or probability of failure is presented, and its sensitivity with different channel design parameters are analyzed. To validate the effectiveness of the present approach, the reliability values and safety factors for variable system loading scenario are obtained under static and dynamic environment. The sensitivity analysis shows that flow depth and bed width are the most influencing parameters that affect the safety factor and reliability.