Improving SCIPUFF Dispersion Forecasts with NWP Ensembles
Improving SCIPUFF Dispersion Forecasts with NWP Ensembles
复制标题
利用数值天气预报集合改进 SCIPUFF 频散预报
DOI：
10.1175/2009jamc2171.1
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
A. Deng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jared A. Lee;L. Joel Peltier;Sue Ellen Haupt;J. Wyngaard;D. Stauffer;A. Deng
摘要利用数值天气预报（NWP）气象场驱动的二阶闭合综合泡扑（SCIPUFF） AT&D模式，研究了大气输散（AT&D）羽流不确定性与输散风场不确定性之间的关系。将1983年跨阿巴拉契亚示踪实验（CAPTEX-83）第一集模拟的污染物浓度与记录的惰性示踪气体C7F14的地面浓度进行了比较。本研究评估了基于泰勒扩散的SCIPUFF色散不确定性参数化，该参数化使用欧拉气象集合速度统计和拉格朗日积分时间尺度作为输入。这些值是由NWP集合数据诊断出来的。对示踪剂释放的个别模拟不能再现某些监测到的示踪剂表面浓度。在SCIPUFF中使用不确定性模型预测的羽流范围更广，改善了预测和观测之间的重叠。
Abstract The relationships between atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D) plume uncertainty and uncertainties in the transporting wind fields are investigated using the Second-Order Closure, Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) AT&D model driven by numerical weather prediction (NWP) meteorological fields. Modeled contaminant concentrations for episode 1 of the 1983 Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX-83) are compared with recorded ground-level concentrations of the inert tracer gas C7F14. This study evaluates a Taylor-diffusion-based parameterization of dispersion uncertainty for SCIPUFF that uses Eulerian meteorological ensemble velocity statistics and a Lagrangian integral time scale as input. These values are diagnosed from NWP ensemble data. Individual simulations of the tracer release fail to reproduce some of the monitored surface concentrations of the tracer. The plumes that are predicted using the uncertainty model in SCIPUFF are broader, improving the overlap between the predicted and observed ...