2 MODELS FOR MULTIREGIONAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
2 MODELS FOR MULTIREGIONAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
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DOI：
10.1068/a050031
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发表时间：
1973-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
FEENEY, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
FEENEY, G
一个一般的线性人口模型，其中包括各种各样的先前提出的人口模型。一般模型特别包括罗杰斯和其他人发展的区域间人口增长和分布的线性模型。这种模式的一个特点受到批评，即来自任何地区的外迁移民在可能的目的地地区之间的分配比例不变。随着人们为了经济机会而移徙，向外移徙者将根据这些机会在各地区之间进行分配。由于一个地区的经济为其人口服务，机会将直接随人口而变化。这就需要采用一种新的模式，根据可能的目的地区域的人口分布情况，对每个区域的外移人口进行可变分配。提出了这样一个模型，它是非线性的。通过应用线性和非线性模型分析1955-1960年美国三个地区之间的人口迁移，对线性和非线性模型进行了比较。在发展新模式的过程中，定义了一套区域间移徙统计数据，消除了区域间流入和流出移徙率之间不完美的二元性。
A general linear demographic model is derived which subsumes a wide variety of previously proposed population models. The general model includes in particular the linear model of interregional population growth and distribution developed by Rogers and others. One feature of this model is criticized, the allocation of outmigrants from any region in constant proportions among possible destination regions. Insofar as persons migrate to economic opportunities, outmigrants will distribute themselves among regions in proportion to these opportunities. Insofar as the economy of a region services its population, opportunities will vary directly with population. This suggests the introduction of a new model which allows for the variable allocation of outmigrants from each region according to the distribution of population among possible destination regions. Such a model is proposed, and it turns out to be nonlinear. The linear and nonlinear models are compared by applying them to the analysis of migration between three regions of the United States during 1955–1960. In the course of developing the new model, a set of interregional migration statistics is defined which eliminates the imperfect duality between interregional in- and out-migration rates.