Post-conflict risks
Post-conflict risks
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343308091356
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发表时间：
2008-07-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Soderbom, Mans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Collier, Paul;Hoeffler, Anke;Soderbom, Mans
冲突后社会面临两项不同的挑战：经济复苏和减少再次发生冲突的风险。援助和政策改革已被发现对经济复苏是有效的。在这篇文章中，作者集中讨论了另一个挑战——降低风险。冲突后的和平通常是脆弱的：近一半的内战是由于冲突后的复发。作者发现，经济发展大大降低了风险，但这需要很长时间。他们还发现有证据表明，联合国维持和平开支大大降低了重新爆发战争的风险。效果是巨大的：加倍的支出将风险从40%降低到31%。与这些结果相反，作者没有发现选举对减少战争风险有任何系统影响。因此，冲突后选举应作为内在可取的方式加以促进，而不是作为增加冲突后和平持久性的机制。根据这些结果，作者认为，和平似乎取决于维持逐渐的经济复苏的外部军事存在，而政治设计则起一些辅助作用。由于冲突后风险的严重程度与冲突结束时的收入水平之间存在关系，这为资源分配提供了一个明确和无争议的原则：人均资源应与冲突后国家的收入水平大致成反比。
Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and reduction of the risk of a recurring conflict. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be effective in economic recovery. In this article, the authors concentrate on the other challenge-risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: nearly half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. The authors find that economic development substantially reduces risks, but it takes a long time. They also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results, the authors cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the post-conflict peace. Based on these results, the authors suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict, this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country.