Crime and coronavirus: social distancing, lockdown, and the mobility elasticity of crime
Crime and coronavirus: social distancing, lockdown, and the mobility elasticity of crime
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DOI：
10.1186/s40163-020-00121-w
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发表时间：
2020-07-06
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Tilley, Nick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Halford, Eric;Dixon, Anthony;Tilley, Nick
世界各国政府通过社会距离和封锁限制人员流动，以帮助遏制全球冠状病毒(新冠肺炎)大流行。我们检查了英国一个警力区域的犯罪影响，并与五年的平均水平进行了比较。不同犯罪类型的变化发生的时间有所不同，其中一些与世卫组织3月11日宣布的“全球大流行”相比有所下降，另一些则是后来的变化。到3月23日封锁后一周，所有记录的犯罪下降了41%，不同的有：入店行窃(-62%)、盗窃(-52%)、家庭暴力(-45%)、车内盗窃(-43%)、殴打(-36%)、入室盗窃(-25%)和入室盗窃(-25%)。我们使用谷歌新冠肺炎社区流动性报告来计算四种犯罪类型的犯罪流动性弹性，发现入店行窃和其他盗窃没有弹性但对零售业流动性降低(MEC=0.84，0.71)做出反应，入室盗窃住宅对居民区流动性增加有弹性(-1)，殴打没有弹性但对工作场所流动性降低做出反应(0.56)。我们的理论认为，犯罪率的变化主要是由流动性的人造成的，这表明了大流行中犯罪变化的流动性理论。我们确定了对犯罪理论、政策和未来研究的影响。
Governments around the world restricted movement of people, using social distancing and lockdowns, to help stem the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We examine crime effects for one UK police force area in comparison to 5-year averages. There is variation in the onset of change by crime type, some declining from the WHO 'global pandemic' announcement of 11 March, others later. By 1 week after the 23 March lockdown, all recorded crime had declined 41%, with variation: shoplifting (- 62%), theft (- 52%), domestic abuse (- 45%), theft from vehicle (- 43%), assault (- 36%), burglary dwelling (- 25%) and burglary non-dwelling (- 25%). We use Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports to calculate the mobility elasticity of crime for four crime types, finding shoplifting and other theft inelastic but responsive to reduced retail sector mobility (MEC = 0.84, 0.71 respectively), burglary dwelling elastic toincreasesin residential area mobility (- 1), with assault inelastic but responsive to reduced workplace mobility (0.56). We theorise that crime rate changes were primarily caused by those in mobility, suggesting a mobility theory of crime change in the pandemic. We identify implications for crime theory, policy and future research.