Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards
Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards
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DOI：
10.1109/jsyst.2017.2700791
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Mancarella, Pierluigi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Gaihua;Wilkinson, Sean;Mancarella, Pierluigi
电力系统正在经历前所未有的变化，低碳发电的能力不断增长，网络控制的分布式方法也越来越多。此外，与气候有关的威胁的严重性预计将增加。为了更好地理解这些变化带来的风险，本文提出了一种新的建模方法来评估未来电网对气候灾害的恢复能力。该方法包括考虑：1)随着需求、供应和基础设施发展政策的变化而演变的电力网络；2)这些政策对网络配置和恢复能力的影响；以及3)气候危害的潜在变化对网络恢复能力的影响。我们展示了对英国国家输电系统的研究，并评估了该系统在替代能源期货下对风暴强度变化的弹性。分析表明，基础设施政策有力地塑造了电力网络的长期空间配置，因此这对其复原力产生了深远影响。虽然该系统对当前气候下的风灾具有一定的适应能力，但我们的分析表明，在风灾强度和频率仅增加5%-10%的情况下，该系统无法满足电力需求，而50%的增加可能导致冬季高峰需求的85%损失。该方法有助于识别潜在的网络风险，并向寻求设计向低碳但有弹性的未来电力系统过渡的更广泛的利益相关者和政策制定者传达信息。
Electricity systems are undergoing unprecedented change, with growing capacity for low-carbon generation, and an increasingly distributed approach to network control. Furthermore, the severity of climate related threats is projected to increase. To improve our understanding of the risks from these changes, this paper presents a novel modeling approach to assess the resilience of future electricity networks to climate hazards. The approach involves consideration of the: 1) evolution of electricity networks in response to changes in demand, supply, and infrastructure development policies; 2) implication that these policies have on network configuration and resilience; and 3) impacts of potential changes in climate hazard on network resilience. We demonstrate the research on the National Electricity Transmission System of Great Britain and assess the resilience of this system to changes in the intensity of wind storms under alternative energy futures. The analysis shows that infrastructure policies strongly shape the long-term spatial configuration of electricity networks and consequently this has profound impacts on their resilience. Though the system is resilient to wind storms under the current climate, our analysis shows that the system fails to meet electricity demand after an increase of only 5-10% in the intensity and frequency of wind storms, and a 50% increase could lead to the loss of 85% of peak winter demand. The approach is useful for identifying and communicating potential network risks to wider stakeholders and policy makers seeking to design a transition toward a low-carbon, yet resilient, future electricity systems.