Scenario planning to leap-frog the Sustainable Development Goals: An adaptation pathways approach
Scenario planning to leap-frog the Sustainable Development Goals: An adaptation pathways approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2015.11.003
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Sutaryono, Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Butler, J. R. A.;Bohensky, E. L.;Sutaryono, Y.
很少有研究考察如何将未来气候变化的不确定性纳入发展中国家减贫决策的主流。随着本世纪晚些时候可能出现的剧烈气候变化，有必要开发规划工具，使脆弱的农村社区能够主动建立适应能力，实现可持续发展目标的“跨越”。以印度尼西亚为例，我们提出了一种新颖的参与式方法来实现这一目标。我们应用情景规划来实现四个适应路径原则：(1)将气候变化视为多尺度社会生态系统的一个组成部分；(2)通过共同学习认识利益相关者的竞争价值观、目标和知识；(3)协调多个决策层面的响应；(4)确定“无悔”、增量（解决社区脆弱性的直接驱动因素）和变革（解决系统性驱动因素）的战略。来自不同行政级别的利益相关者参加了研讨会，确定了变革的驱动因素、理想的愿景和2090年生计的探索性情景，并利用规范的回溯法设计了实现愿景所需的无悔适应战略。由此产生的战略“挂毯”主要是渐进式的和针对传统发展需求的。很少有人直接讨论当前或未来可能的气候变化影响。少数人是变革性的，更高层次的利益相关者比地方层面的利益相关者确定了更多的变革性战略。虽然绝大多数的策略都是无怨无悔的，但有些策略可能适应性不佳，特别是对沿海地区和基础设施而言。很少有变革性创新能够在人类和环境相关结果方面产生阶梯式变化，从而实现跨越式可持续发展目标。我们的结论是，虽然有效地将未来的不确定性纳入社区发展规划，但我们的方法应该更加强调通过延长学习周期来分析和解决系统驱动因素。爱思唯尔出版社2015年版权所有
Few studies have examined how to mainstream future climate change uncertainty into decision-making for poverty alleviation in developing countries. With potentially drastic climate change emerging later this century, there is an imperative to develop planning tools which can enable vulnerable rural communities to proactively build adaptive capacity and 'leap-frog' the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using an example from Indonesia, we present a novel participatory approach to achieve this. We applied scenario planning to operationalise four adaptation pathways principles: (1) consideration of climate change as a component of multi-scale social-ecological systems; (2) recognition of stakeholders' competing values, goals and knowledge through co-learning; (3) coordination of responses across multiple decision-making levels; and (4) identification of strategies which are 'no regrets', incremental (tackling proximate drivers of community vulnerability) and transformative (tackling systemic drivers). Workshops with stakeholders from different administrative levels identified drivers of change, an aspirational vision and explorative scenarios for livelihoods in 2090, and utilised normative back-casting to design no regrets adaptation strategies needed to achieve the vision. The resulting 'tapestry' of strategies were predominantly incremental, and targeted conventional development needs. Few directly addressed current or possible future climate change impacts. A minority was transformative, and higher level stakeholders identified proportionately more transformative strategies than local level stakeholders. Whilst the vast majority of strategies were no regrets, some were potentially mal-adaptive, particularly for coastal areas and infrastructure. There were few examples of transformative innovations that could generate a step-change in linked human and environmental outcomes, hence leap-frogging the SDGs. We conclude that whilst effective at integrating future uncertainties into community development planning, our approach should place greater emphasis on analysing and addressing systemic drivers through extended learning cycles. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.