INFEKTA-An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia.
INFEKTA-An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0245787
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rodríguez A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gomez J;Prieto J;Leon E;Rodríguez A
冠状病毒COVID-19的传播动态几乎在各个层面上对人类提出了挑战。目前，地球仪的研究小组正试图找出在特殊条件下的传播动力学，如政府实施的分离政策。数学和计算模型，如房室模型或基于代理的模型，正在用于这一目的。本文提出了一个基于代理的模型，称为INFEKTA，用于模拟在社交距离政策下传染病的传播，而不仅仅是COVID-19。国家传染病控制网络将特定疾病的传播动态（根据文献中的参数）与所研究的真实的城镇或城市的地缘政治区域的人口统计信息（人口密度、年龄和个人类型）相结合。代理（虚拟人）可以移动，根据其流动性例程和强制性的社会距离政策，在一个复杂的网络上的访问地点定义在一个欧几里得空间代表的城镇或城市。在哥伦比亚首都博戈塔市，使用INFEKTA模拟了不同社交距离政策下COVID-19的传播动态，其中有100万虚拟人。对社交距离政策影响的敏感性分析表明，有可能建立一个“媒介”（即，关闭40%的场所）的社交距离政策，以大幅减少疾病传播。
The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus—COVID-19—have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogotá city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a ‘medium’ (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission.
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Merelli, Emanuela;Rucco, Matteo;Tesei, Luca
通讯作者：
Tesei, Luca
结合计算流体动力学和基于代理的建模：疏散计划的新方法。
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Epstein JM;Pankajakshan R;Hammond RA
通讯作者：
Hammond RA
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.022618299
发表时间：
2002-02-05
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Murray, M
通讯作者：
Murray, M
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Halloran, ME;Longini, IM;Yang, Y
通讯作者：
Yang, Y
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Galea, Sandro;Riddle, Matthew;Kaplan, George A.
通讯作者：
Kaplan, George A.