Effects of Regional Trade Agreement to Local and Global Trade Purity Relationships
Effects of Regional Trade Agreement to Local and Global Trade Purity Relationships
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区域贸易协定对当地和全球贸易纯净关系的影响
DOI：
10.1155/2020/2987217
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发表时间：
2020-07-23
期刊：
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Chen, Qinghua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Siyu;Gou, Wensha;Chen, Qinghua
与世界经济的快速一体化相反，自 20 世纪 90 年代初以来，许多区域贸易协定（RTAs）也应运而生。这种矛盾鼓励学者和政策制定者探索区域贸易协定的真正影响，包括区域和全球贸易关系。本文定义了综合贸易阻力，并将其分解为自然因素和人为因素。在这里，我们分离出地理距离、经济体量以及运输和劳动力成本总体增长的影响，并使用期望最大化算法来优化参数并量化贸易纯度指标，该指标描述了真实的全球贸易环境和国家之间的关系。这表明，尽管2007-2017年期间全球和大多数区域贸易关系逐渐恶化，但区域贸易协定在成员之间产生了贸易关系，特别是促进了欧盟（EU）和北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）国家的相对繁荣。此外，我们应用网络来反映国家间贸易关系的纯洁性。可以通过比较典型的工会和贸易社区来分析区域贸易协定的效果，这些工会和贸易社区使用经验网络结构来呈现。分析表明，社区结构与部分工会较为一致，具有代表性的区域贸易协定构成了国际贸易网络的核心结构。然而，过去十年，工会的作用有所削弱，多边贸易自由化进程加速。这意味着越来越多的国家最近倾向于将其贸易伙伴扩大到这些联盟之外，而不是将其贸易活动限制在区域贸易协定内。
In contrast to the rapid integration of the world economy, many regional trade agreements (RTAs) have also emerged since the early 1990s. This contradiction has encouraged scholars and policymakers to explore the true effects of RTAs, including both regional and global trade relationships. This paper defines synthesized trade resistance and decomposes it into natural and artificial factors. Here, we separate the influence of geographical distance, economic volume, and overall increase in transportation and labor costs and use the expectation maximization algorithm to optimize the parameters and quantify the trade purity indicator, which describes the true global trade environment and relationships among countries. This indicates that although global and most regional trade relations gradually deteriorated during the period 2007–2017, RTAs generate trade relations among members, especially contributing to the relative prosperity of European Union (EU) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries. In addition, we apply the network to reflect the purity of the trade relations among countries. The effects of RTAs can be analyzed by comparing typical trade unions and trade communities, which are presented using an empirical network structure. This analysis shows that the community structure is quite consistent with some trade unions, and the representative RTAs constitute the core structure of international trade network. However, the role of trade unions has weakened, and multilateral trade liberalization has accelerated in the past decade. This means that more countries have recently tended to expand their trading partners outside of these unions rather than limit their trading activities to RTAs.