Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact
Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact
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DOI：
10.1007/s10236-009-0248-8
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发表时间：
2010-04
期刊：
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Jenny M. Brown;A. Souza;J. Wolf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenny M. Brown;A. Souza;J. Wolf
据信，在未来，由于气候变化，沿海极端洪水事件的强度和频率可能会增加。自然环境研究委员会（NERC）极端事件的洪水风险（FREE）项目、极端事件引起的沿海洪水和欧盟FP7极端风暴事件引起的形态影响和沿海风险项目正在调查爱尔兰海东部的洪水风险，该地区包括英格兰大部分沿海地区。利用1977年11月以前模拟和验证的历史极端浪涌事件，我们现在研究浪涌峰值的变化是未来可能的气候条件的结果。为了模拟浪涌，我们建立了一个单向嵌套方法，使用Proudman海洋学实验室沿海海洋模拟系统3D斜压模型，从覆盖整个西北欧洲大陆架的区域，到1.85公里的爱尔兰海模型；这两个地区都受到潮汐、大气压力和风的影响。我们使用该模型系统来研究风速增强和海平面上升对峰值浪涌高度和剩余电流模式的影响。结果表明，海平面上升比风速增加更有可能增加风暴潮水平。
It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than increased wind speeds.