Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: The case of botulinum toxin in milk
Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: The case of botulinum toxin in milk
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0408526102
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发表时间：
2005-07-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Liu, YF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wein, LM;Liu, YF
我们开发了一个数学模型的奶牛到消费者的供应链与一个单一的牛奶加工设施，是一个故意释放肉毒杆菌毒素的受害者。由于集中储存和处理会导致毒素的大量稀释，因此需要最低量的毒素才能释放造成损害。关于剂量-反应曲线的不可减少的不确定性使我们无法量化最小有效释放。然而，如果恐怖分子能够获得足够的毒素（这很有可能），那么，如果早期中毒者没有及时发现，那么迅速的分发和消费就会导致数十万人中毒。及时和具体的过程中检测有可能以每加仑< 1美分的成本消除这种情况的威胁，应积极推行。在不牺牲风味和营养的前提下，提高热巴氏杀菌的毒素灭活率是必要的。
We developed a mathematical model of a cows-to-consumers supply chain associated with a single milk-processing facility that is the victim of a deliberate release of botulinum toxin. Because centralized storage and processing lead to substantial dilution of the toxin, a minimum amount of toxin is required for the release to do damage. Irreducible uncertainties regarding the dose-response curve prevent us from quantifying the minimum effective release. However, if terrorists can obtain enough toxin, and this may well be possible, then rapid distribution and consumption result in several hundred thousand poisoned individuals if detection from early symptomatics is not timely. Timely and specific in-process testing has the potential to eliminate the threat of this scenario at a cost of < 1 cent per gallon and should be pursued aggressively. Investigation of improving the toxin inactivation rate of heat pasteurization without sacrificing taste or nutrition is warranted.