Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions
Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Bloeschl, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Di Baldassarre, G.;Viglione, A.;Bloeschl, G.
历史上，由于河流作为运输走廊的作用和河岸地区的肥沃，人类倾向于在溪流附近定居。然而，洪泛区的人类住区受到洪水风险的威胁。可能的应对措施是重新安置和/或通过建造防洪结构来改变河流系统。这导致了一个复杂的网络的相互作用和反馈机制之间的水文和社会过程中解决洪泛区。本文试图将这些假设的人洪系统的相互作用概念化。我们开发了一个简单的，动态的模型来表示水文和社会过程之间的相互作用和反馈回路。然后，该模型被用来探索人类洪水系统的动态和改变个人特征的影响，包括外部强迫，如技术发展。结果表明，概念模型能够再现洪水与人之间的交互作用以及典型模式的出现。例如，当建造或加高堤坝以保护洪泛区时，它们的存在不仅会减少洪水发生的频率，还会加剧高水位。由于这种加剧，社会要求更高的防洪水平。因此，越来越多的洪水事件被避免，但罕见的灾难性事件发生。
Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.