From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: How big is the gap and can we bridge it?
From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: How big is the gap and can we bridge it?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.003
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发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
M. Wijk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Wijk
在全球和地方发生剧烈变化的背景下，政策和决策者必须做出艰难的选择，以改善当地人民的粮食安全。使用集成模型进行事前影响评估可以帮助他们做出这些决策。本综述分析了政策干预多尺度建模的现状，重点关注在发展中国家和畜牧系统中的应用。现有模型无法充分捕捉不同尺度上人类与环境相互作用的复杂性，特别是景观和当地市场水平以及国家和次国家水平政策和市场之间的联系缺失。该论文提出了一种逐步增加数据需求的方法来弥补这一差距。需要改进当地市场分布对价格形成的影响的描述以及景观中农场多样性的表现。需要对农业生态系统进行对比分析，以得出可用作宏观模型分析输入的通用汇总函数。这对于作物和畜牧生产与价格发展的宏观描述以及社会经济条件和发展不同地区不同农业土地利用反应的镶嵌尤其相关。
Policy and decision makers have to make difficult choices to improve the food security of local people against the background of drastic global and local changes. Ex-ante impact assessment using integrated models can help them with these decisions. This review analyses the state of affairs of the multi-scale modelling of policy interventions, with an emphasis on applications in developing countries and livestock systems. Existing models do not sufficiently capture the complexity of human–environment interactions across different scales, and especially the link between landscape and local market levels, and national and sub-national level policies and markets is missing. The paper suggests a step wise approach with increasing data needs to bridge this gap. Improvements need to be made at the description of effects of the distribution of local markets on price formation and the representation of farm diversity within a landscape. Analyses in contrasting agro-ecological systems are needed to derive generic summary functions that can be used as input for macro level model analyses. This is especially pertinent for macro level descriptions of crop and livestock production in relation to price developments and of the mosaic of different agricultural land use responses in regions with contrasting socio-economic conditions and developments.