Individualized model of human thermoregulation for the simulation of heat stress response
Individualized model of human thermoregulation for the simulation of heat stress response
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DOI：
10.1152/jappl.2001.90.5.1943
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发表时间：
2001-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Havenith, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Havenith, G
将基于人群的人体体温调节动态模型扩展为包含个人特征（体表面积、质量、脂肪百分比、最大O-2摄取、适应）的控制方程。这些都影响被动系统（热容量，绝缘）和主动系统（出汗和皮肤血液流动功能）。根据文献资料估计模型参数。为研究个体差异而收集的其他数据{在干热[45度，20%相对湿度（rh）]、暖湿[35度，80% rh]和凉爽[21度，50% rh]环境下工作的相对或绝对工作量}用于验证。个性化模型提供了一个改进的预测[平均岩心温度误差，-0.21 -> -0.07度](P < 0.001)；均方误差为0.40 - 0.16度，（P < 0.001）]。改善的幅度因气候和工作类型的不同而有很大差异。相对于从这些特定数据集导出的经验多元回归模型，分析模拟模型的预测能力在54%至89%之间，除了寒冷气候，该比率为零。总之，模型的个性化可以改进热应变的预测，尽管仍然存在很大的误差。
A population-based dynamic model of human thermoregulation was expanded with control equations incorporating the individual person's characteristics (body surface area, mass, fat%, maximal O-2 uptake, acclimation). These affect both the passive (heat capacity, insulation) and active systems (sweating and skin blood flow function). Model parameters were estimated from literature data. Other data, collected for the study of individual differences {working at relative or absolute workloads in hot-dry [45 degreesC, 20% relative humidity (rh)], warm-humid [35 degreesC, 80% rh], and cool [21 degreesC, 50% rh] environments}, were used for validation. The individualized model provides an improved prediction [mean core temperature error, -0.21 --> -0.07 degreesC (P < 0.001); mean squared error, 0.40 --> 0.16 degreesC, (P < 0.001)]. The magnitude of improvement varies substantially with the climate and work type. Relative to an empirical multiple-regression model derived from these specific data sets, the analytical simulation model has between 54 and 89% of its predictive power, except for the cool climate, in which this ratio is zero. In conclusion, individualization of the model allows improved prediction of heat strain, although a substantial error remains.