Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3096
复制
发表时间：
2016-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Hare, William
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich;Rogelj, Joeri;Hare, William
《巴黎协定》设定了一个长期气温目标，将全球平均气温升幅控制在远低于2摄氏度的水平，并努力将其控制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的范围内。在这里，我们概述了与这一目标相关的科学和政策方面，并分析了其对缓解途径的影响。我们展示了1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度变暖之间影响的明显差异的例子。与此同时，大多数可用的低排放场景至少在2100年之前暂时超过1.5摄氏度的限制。因此，温度过高的遗留问题以及将变暖控制在1.5摄氏度或更低的可行性，成为后巴黎科学议程的核心要素。各国为2020-2030年期间设定的近期减排目标不足以确保实现温度目标。这一时期的缓解雄心的增加将决定《协定》在实现其温度目标方面的效力。
The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5 degrees C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda. The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020-2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal.