A note on tail dependence regression

A note on tail dependence regression
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关于尾部依赖回归的注记

DOI:
10.1016/j.jmva.2013.05.007
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发表时间:
2013-09
影响因子:
1.6
通讯作者:
Wang, Hansheng
Wang, Hansheng
中科院分区:
数学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Zhang, Qingzhao;Li, Deyuan;Wang, Hansheng

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在金融实践中,了解个别资产的收益与市场指数之间的依赖结构是很重要的。在极端情况下尤其如此。从理论上讲,这相当于将依赖关系回归到一组预先指定的预测变量上。为此,我们提出了一种新的方法,称为尾部相关性回归。它假设单个资产和市场指数之间的尾部依赖指数模型。随后,通过单调变换,将这样的尾部相关性指数建模为预测值的线性组合。然后用近似极大似然法估计未知回归系数。从理论上研究了所得估计量的渐近性质。为了说明的目的,我们提供了包括模拟数据集和真实数据集的数值研究。
In financial practice, it is important to understand the dependence structure between the returns of individual assets and the market index. This is particularly true under extreme situations. Theoretically, this amounts to regressing the dependence relationship against a set of pre-specified predictive variables. To this end, we propose here a novel method called tail dependence regression. It assumes a tail dependence index model between individual assets and market index. Subsequently, such a tail dependence index is modeled as a linear combination of the predictors through a monotonic transformation. An approximate maximum likelihood method is then developed to estimate the unknown regression coefficients. The resulting estimator’s asymptotic properties are investigated theoretically. Numerical studies including both simulated and real datasets are presented for illustration purposes.
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