Reference-Dependence in Multi-Location Newsvendor Models: A Structural Analysis
Reference-Dependence in Multi-Location Newsvendor Models: A Structural Analysis
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1419725
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发表时间：
2010-05
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通讯作者：
Teck-Hua Ho;Noah Lim;T. Cui
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作者：
Teck-Hua Ho;Noah Lim;T. Cui
我们提出了一个行为理论来预测实际订购行为在多地点库存系统。该理论基于一个众所周知的人类行为的程式化事实：人们的偏好依赖于参考。我们将参考依赖的报童框架，假设有心理成本的剩菜和缺货。我们还假设，心理上对剩菜的厌恶大于缺货的负效用。然后，我们实验测试所提出的理论，在集中和分散的库存结构，使用大量的财政激励激励的主题。与所提出的理论相一致，实际订单表现出所谓的“拉到中心”的偏见和程度的偏差是在高利润率比在低利润率的条件。这些系统性的偏见，以消除风险池的好处时，商店位置的需求是强相关的。由于所提出的模型嵌套的标准库存和事后库存误差最小化理论作为特殊情况下，可以系统地评估预测能力的每一个替代品使用广义似然原理。我们使用实验数据对所有三种理论进行了结构性估计，估计结果强烈表明，所提出的行为理论更好地捕捉了实际订单和利润。我们还进行了两个实验来验证的行为模型，通过操纵的心理成本的相对显着性的剩菜与缺货，以减轻拉到中心的偏见。
We propose a behavioral theory to predict actual ordering behavior in multilocation inventory systems. The theory rests on a well-known stylized fact of human behavior: people's preferences are reference dependent. We incorporate reference dependence into the newsvendor framework by assuming that there are psychological costs of leftovers and stockouts. We also hypothesize that the psychological aversion to leftovers is greater than the disutility for stockouts. We then experimentally test the proposed theory in both the centralized and decentralized inventory structures using subjects motivated by substantial financial incentives. Consistent with the proposed theory, actual orders exhibit the so-called "pull-to-center" bias and the degree of bias is greater in the high-profit margin than in the low-profit margin condition. These systematic biases are shown to eliminate the risk-pooling benefit when the demands across store locations are strongly correlated. Because the proposed model nests the standard inventory and ex post inventory error minimization theories as special cases, one can systematically evaluate the predictive power of each alternative using the generalized likelihood principle. We structurally estimate all three theories using the experimental data, and the estimation results strongly suggest that the proposed behavioral theory captures actual orders and profits better. We also conduct two experiments to validate the behavioral model by manipulating the relative salience of the psychological costs of leftovers versus that of stockouts to alleviate the pull-to-center bias.