Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends
Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014
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发表时间：
2013-03
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
P. Bohlinger;B. Sinnhuber;R. Ruhnke;O. Kirner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Bohlinger;B. Sinnhuber;R. Ruhnke;O. Kirner
抽象的。北极平流层臭氧消耗与平流层低温的发生密切相关。有迹象表明，北极平流层的寒冷冬季变得越来越冷，引发了一个问题：北极平流层的降温是否以及在多大程度上可能持续到未来。我们使用欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) ERA-Interim 和 NASA 现代时代研究与应用回顾分析 (MERRA) 过去 32 年的气象再分析，以及化学气候模型 (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy 大气化学 (EMAC) 的计算和化学气候模型验证 (CCMVal) 项目的模型来推断辐射和动力贡献北极平流层温度的长期变化。在过去的三十年中，重新分析显示冬季变暖的趋势和春季和夏季变冷的趋势，这与无线电探空仪创新复合均质化（RICH）调整的无线电探空仪数据集的趋势非常吻合。冬季和春季的变化是由于行星波活动的相应变化引起的，冬季增加，春季减少。在冬季，行星波活动的增加被残余的辐射引起的冷却所抵消。平流层辐射引起的冷却在所有季节都可以检测到，其中在春季和夏季尤为显着。这意味着，对于给定的动态情况，根据 ERA-Interim 的数据，过去 32 年中，北极低平流层的年平均温度在 50 hPa 温度下下降了 -0.41 ± 0.11 K decade−1。使用 CCMVal 和 EMAC 模型的最先进模型进行的计算定性地再现了过去几十年的辐射诱导冷却，但低估了从重新分析中推导出的辐射诱导冷却量。有迹象表明，这种差异可能部分与模型中可能低估了过去北极臭氧的趋势有关。这些模型预测，未来几十年（2001-2049）北极平流层将持续变冷，由于臭氧消耗物质的减少以及由此产生的臭氧恢复，年平均变冷量比过去模拟的变冷量减少约40%。这种预计的降温反过来可能会抵消北极臭氧恢复的 15% 至 40%。
Abstract. Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade−1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling of the Arctic stratosphere over the coming decades (2001–2049) that is for the annual mean about 40% less than the modeled cooling for the past, due to the reduction of ozone depleting substances and the resulting ozone recovery. This projected cooling in turn could offset between 15 and 40% of the Arctic ozone recovery.