Prophetic blogger identification based on buzzword prediction ability
Prophetic blogger identification based on buzzword prediction ability
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DOI：
10.1108/ijwis-03-2016-0013
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发表时间：
2016-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jianwei Zhang;Seiya Tomonaga;Shinsuke Nakajima;Y. Inagaki;Reyn Y. Nakamoto
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文献类型：
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作者：
Jianwei Zhang;Seiya Tomonaga;Shinsuke Nakajima;Y. Inagaki;Reyn Y. Nakamoto
目的 从社交媒体中识别重要用户最近引起了信息和知识管理界的广泛关注。尽管研究人员关注用户对某些主题的知识水平或社交网络中对其他用户的影响程度，但先前的工作并未研究用户对未来流行度的预测能力。本文旨在提出一种基于流行语预测能力来寻找预言博主的新方法。设计/方法论/途径 主要方法是在博客圈中进行时间序列分析，考虑四个因素：帖子早期性、内容相似性、进入频率和流行语覆盖率。我们的方法有四个步骤：将博主分类为知识渊博的类别，识别过去的流行语，分析流行语的高峰时间内容和增长期，最后评估博主对流行语和类别的预测能力。研究结果 由来自 1100 万博主的 1.5 亿条条目组成的真实博客数据的实验结果表明，所提出的方法可以找到预言博主，并且优于其他不考虑时间特征的方法。原创性/价值 据作者所知，我们的方法是识别预言性博主的第一次成功尝试。寻找预言性博主可以带来巨大的价值，原因有两个。首先，由于预言性博客作者倾向于发布创造性和有洞察力的信息，对其博客条目的分析可能有助于找到未来的流行词候选者。其次，与预言性博主的交流可以帮助了解未来趋势，洞察早期采用者对新技术的想法，甚至预见将会流行的事物。
Purpose Identifying important users from social media has recently attracted much attention in the information and knowledge management community. Although researchers have focused on users’ knowledge levels on certain topics or influence degrees on other users in social networks, previous works have not studied users’ prediction ability on future popularity. This paper aims to propose a novel approach to find prophetic bloggers based on their buzzword prediction ability. Design/methodology/approach The main approach is to conduct a time-series analysis in the blogosphere considering four factors: post earliness, content similarity, entry frequency and buzzword coverage. Our method has four steps: categorizing a blogger into knowledgeable categories, identifying past buzzwords, analyzing a buzzword’s peak time content and growth period and, finally, evaluating a blogger’s prediction ability on a buzzword and on a category. Findings Experimental results on real-world blog data consisting of 150 million entries from 11 million bloggers demonstrate that the proposed approach can find prophetic bloggers and outperforms others that do not take temporal features into account. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, our approach is the first successful attempt to identify prophetic bloggers. Finding prophetic bloggers can bring great values for two reasons. First, as prophetic bloggers tend to post creative and insightful information, analysis on their blog entries may help find future buzzword candidates. Second, communication with prophetic bloggers can help understand future trends, gain insight into early adopters’ thoughts on new technology or even foresee things that will become popular.