Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant
Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2017.0149
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发表时间：
2017-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Nourani;Noriyuki M. Yamaguchi;H. Higuchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Nourani;Noriyuki M. Yamaguchi;H. Higuchi
候鸟可能会受到气候变化的不利影响，因为它们在生命周期的各个阶段都会受到地理上不均匀的影响。虽然大量研究致力于气候变化对候鸟分布范围和物候的影响，但人们对气候变化通过空气流动变化对最佳迁徙路线和飞行路线的间接影响知之甚少。在这里，我们使用一系列相关建模方法以及从区域气候模型获得的当前和未来的大气数据来预测气候变化对长途迁徙者迁徙路线的影响。我们表明，到本世纪中叶，风力条件的变化将导致研究物种东方蜜鵝在其秋季迁徙的关键路段上的适宜迁徙区域发生轻微的变化和减少，随后到本世纪末，这部分传统路线将完全消失。我们的研究结果强调，有必要调查气候变化引起的风支持扰乱对长距离候鸟的影响，特别是那些依靠风跨越生态屏障的物种，以及那些由于未来范围变化而面临更长旅程的物种。
Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts.