SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjaa044
复制
发表时间：
2021-05-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carvalho, Vasco M.;Nirei, Makoto;Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
利用2011年日本东部大地震的外生性和区域性，本文量化了投入产出联系作为地震传播和放大机制的作用。我们的文件表明，灾难造成的破坏沿着供应链上下游传播，影响到受灾企业的直接和间接供应商和客户。然后，利用生产网络的一般均衡模型，通过考虑这些传播效应，我们得到了对灾难的总体宏观经济影响的估计。我们发现，地震及其余波导致日本在灾后一年的实际GDP增长率下降了0.47个百分点。
Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this article provides a quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the disaster propagated upstream and downstream along supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. Using a general equilibrium model of production networks, we then obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the disaster by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the earthquake and its aftermaths resulted in a 0.47 percentage point decline in Japan's real GDP growth in the year following the disaster.